With 10 Tests remaining in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, several teams remain in contention for a place in the top two, although no team is guaranteed a spot just yet, as per ESPNcricinfo. South Africa, leading the table with a percentage of 63.33, have two home matches against Pakistan remaining. Their recent 2-0 series sweep against Sri Lanka has put them in a strong position. To secure a spot in the final, they need to win just one of their upcoming Tests against Pakistan. A 1-1 series result would leave them at 61.11 percent, with only India or Australia in a position to overtake them.
If both Tests are drawn, South Africa would finish at 58.33 per cent. In such a scenario, India would need to beat Australia 3-2, and Australia would need to win both Tests in Sri Lanka to surpass South Africa. If South Africa lose the series 1-0, they would then rely on Australia winning no more than two of their remaining five Tests, or India securing no more than one win and one draw from their remaining three Tests in Australia.
Sri Lanka, currently at 45.45 per cent, have two home matches against Australia left. Even if they win both Tests, they would only reach 53.85 per cent, and would then be dependent on other results. South Africa and one of India or Australia can surpass this percentage. For both teams to finish below 53.85 per cent, Australia would need to win their series against India 2-1 with two draws, and South Africa would have to lose both Tests against Pakistan.
India, with a percentage of 57.29, have three away Tests against Australia remaining. To ensure a place in the final, they need two wins and a draw, which would take them to 60.53 per cent, securing at least second place behind South Africa. If India win the series 3-2, they would finish at 58.77 per cent, and Australia could still finish below them if they win against Sri Lanka 1-0. However, if India lose the series 2-3, they would finish at 53.51 per cent, allowing Australia, Sri Lanka, and South Africa to surpass them. In this case, India would need South Africa to lose both Tests against Pakistan and hope Australia achieve at least a draw in Sri Lanka.
Australia, standing at 60.71 per cent, have three home Tests against India and two away Tests in Sri Lanka remaining. They need two wins from their three Tests against India to secure a place in the final. Even if they lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, a 3-2 series win against India would leave them at 55.26 per cent, higher than India's 53.51 per cent and Sri Lanka's 53.85 per cent. If Australia lose 2-3, India would move up to 58.77 per cent, and Australia would then need to win both Tests in Sri Lanka to surpass India. Alternatively, they would have to hope that South Africa manage no more than one draw against Pakistan, leaving South Africa at 55.56%, a mark Australia can surpass with a win and a draw in Sri Lanka.
Pakistan, currently at 33.33 per cent, have a slim, mathematical chance of qualifying, contingent on South Africa dropping an over-rate point. Even with four wins from their remaining four matches, Pakistan would finish at 52.38 per cent, just below South Africa's 52.78 per cent. Should South Africa lose a game, they would drop to 52.08 per cent. With several other results going in their favour, it remains mathematically possible for Pakistan to finish second to either Australia or India. However, their chances are remote.
New Zealand, England, Bangladesh, and West Indies are out of contention for a place in the final.
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source https://sports.ndtv.com/cricket/world-test-championship-final-qualification-with-10-games-to-go-all-possible-scenarios-explained-7210193
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